How to play
Five questions. One number each. No multiple choice.
The basics
- Read the question — always about a real, verifiable number.
- Type your estimate. Shorthand works: 9m, 1.2bn, 45,000.
- Press Guess. The real figure appears with your error and score.
- Repeat five times, then share your grid.
There is no penalty for a wild guess beyond the score itself, and no time limit. Come back tomorrow for five new questions and keep your streak alive.
Scoring, and why it is not just percentage error
Guessing 110 when the answer is 100 and guessing 1,000,010 when the answer is 1,000,000 are both “10 off”, but only one of them is a good guess. So absolute difference is useless here.
Raw percentage error has its own problem: it is lopsided. Guessing half the true value is −50 %, guessing double is +100 % — the same mistake in opposite directions, scored very differently. We therefore score on the log of the ratio between your guess and the answer, which is perfectly symmetric: twice too high and half as much are treated identically.
L = |log10(guess ÷ answer)| score = 1000 ÷ (1 + (L ÷ 0.0828)²)
| How far off | Score |
|---|---|
| Exact | 1000 |
| 1% off | 997 |
| 5% off | 939 |
| 10% off | 800 |
| 25% off | 422 |
| 50% off | 181 |
| 100% off | 70 |
| 900% off | 7 |
The curve is deliberately gentle in the tail: being 10× out still beats being 100× out, so the last question always matters.
Proximity bands
- 🎯 Bullseye — within 2 %
- 🔥 Hot — within 10 %
- 🌤️ Warm — within 25 %
- 🌥️ Lukewarm — within 50 %
- ❄️ Cold — up to 3× off
- 🧊 Way off — beyond 3×
The n/5 in your shared result counts questions inside 25 % — the “I actually knew that” threshold.
Frequently asked
How do I play?
Each day you get five questions about real-world numbers. Type your best estimate and press Guess. You immediately see the correct figure, how far off you were as a percentage, and a score out of 1,000.
How is the score calculated?
Your score depends on how many times off you are, not how many units. Being 10% off scores 800 points whether the answer is 40 or 40 billion. A perfect answer is 1,000 points and being ten times out is close to zero.
Does everyone get the same questions?
Yes. The five questions are the same for every player worldwide, in every language, and they roll over at midnight US Eastern time.
Do I need an account?
No. Your streak and stats are saved in your own browser. Nothing is uploaded and there is no signup.
Where do the numbers come from?
Every question links to its original source — usually a government agency, a company filing or a peer-reviewed publication. The year the figure refers to is shown on each question page.
What happens if I miss a day?
Your streak resets. Playing an archive puzzle does not restore a broken streak, but it does not break an active one either.